Exposing the Soccer Betting ‘Dead Cert’ Myth

If you are a keen football punter then no doubt you’ll have sifted through multitudes of online soccer tipping websites to see what services are out there. Frankly, it’s difficult to avoid misleading terms such as ‘sure bet,’ ‘banker,’ ‘dead cert’ or ‘guaranteed winner.’ Many tipsters actually incorporate these terms into the URL of their sites in the hope of increasing the number of sign ups. As a punter and tipster this hugely frustrates me. Without opening up the cans of worms that are the laws of mathematics and statistics, the simple indisputable fact is that there is no such thing as a sure outcome in soccer, or sport. If a dead cert outcome did exist there would be no bookmakers in business to cover our bets. Sometimes I read the introductory few paragraphs which insist that the professional tipster possesses a unique secret method for picking guaranteed winners. I believe that it should be illegal to make such misleading claims.

Having more than 20 years of trials and tribulations as a football or ‘soccer’ punter, I can categorically tell you that the whole notion of a dead cert is not only false, but is in itself a contradiction. If the outcome of a particular soccer match was a guarantee, then surely there would be no need for the teams to do battle for ninety minutes. Also, bookmakers would be clinically insane to cover bets on a game whose result was a certainty. I realise that I’m possibly being facetious in my last few sentences, but it’s scary to note the amount of reasonably intelligent people that will believe anything that’s written in print by a so-called ‘expert’.

When I began providing tips to the public via my website, I incorporated a ‘Banker Section’ every week. Now, the idea of this section was to suggest that, having done hours of research and analysis on various games, I really couldn’t see any other outcome than, for example, a home win. If a game from the Banker Section resulted in a shock outcome, I’d suffer as both a tipster and a punter. It effectively made my tipping skills seem incompetent to some my members, not to mention I’d also have personally had a sizable bet on the game. Two games still stick in my mind and bring back uncomfortable memories.

April 10 2010, Scottish Cup: Glasgow Celtic 0 – 2 Ross County.

Premier League giants Celtic were unceremoniously dumped out of the cup by First Division side Ross County, completing one of the biggest upsets in Scottish football history. Many soccer accumulator or multi-bets were subsequently torn up in disgust by outraged punters.

February 21 2010, Dutch League: PSV Eindhoven 1 – 1 Sparta Rotterdam.

This game had been priced as low as 1.09 by bookmakers for a home win, such was the ‘certainty’ of the outcome. PSV had won eleven league games in a row in Eindhoven and were facing a Sparta side who had already lost twelve of their away games that season, and who also went on to be relegated. To add insult to injury, Sparta scored their equalizing goal three minutes into injury time.

Huge upset results like these obviously ruin accumulator bets, but more significantly they highlight the fact that you can never ever be certain about the outcome of a soccer bet.

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World Cup Stars – Jordan Pickford



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Betting Tips and Money Management in Soccer Betting

Soccer experts provide you with betting tips, the media publishes the latest news about the opponent teams and their key players, bookmakers support hundreds of betting methods. However, when you finally place your huge wager on a sure favorite, this is the time to start praying. Unfortunately, the world of soccer betting is quite unpredictable. There are thousands of factors playing against us. How can we cut our betting losses? The only way to do it is by using money management strategies. This article summarizes the methods and strategies of betting money management and provides a statistical comparison of their performance based on betting odds and match results of top European leagues.

The most common betting money management strategies in our days are: Martingale, Row of numbers and Kelly criterion. While the first two do not require any prior information, Kelly criterion requires the punter to know the probability of a win.


Before presenting the performance analysis, a brief description of the above-mentioned strategies is necessary:

— Martingale strategy means doubling the stack after a loss and returning back to the starting stack after a win. This strategy is the most popular today and promises positive profits, but requires intensive money investments.

— Row of numbers means planning a series of constant profits. Given betting odds, the punter calculates each stake in a way that will allow him to make the planned profit. In case he loses, he should increase the next stack in such a way the profit will return both the money already lost and the planned profits for the lost games. This strategy is less aggressive than Martingale but still dangerous.

— Kelly criterion: mathematically proven to be the best strategy in the long run. However, it requires knowing the probability of a win. The stacks are calculated in proportion of the size of your funds and according to the relation between the probability of a win and the betting odds. When probability and odds are high, a high stack will be placed and vice versa.

Data and Methods

In order to evaluate the performance of each strategy, we analyzed the betting odds set by bookmakers for the top European leagues. Imagine that bookmakers are punters who place a stake on a favorite with minimal betting odds. One can easily estimate the probability of a win by dividing the average number of home/draw/away outcomes by the total number of games in a season.

The betting odds and results are taken from the four European top leagues playing in the 2008/2009 season: English Premier, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1 and Spanish Primera Division.


— The results show that Kelly criterion is the best money management strategy of the three with an average profit of +5% compared to +1% (Row) and +1.2% (Martingale).

— The most profitable was the French Ligue 1 with a betting profit of +22% (Kelly), +9% (Row) and +10% (Martingale).

— The least profitable was the English Premier League with a betting loses of -10% (Kelly) ), -9% (Row) and -8% (Martingale).

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Incredible drama! England advance to the #WorldCup quarter-finals following 4…

Incredible drama!

England advance to the #WorldCup quarter-finals following 4-3 penalty shoot-out success against Colombia

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How to Persuade Youth Players in the USA That Soccer is the Best Sport to Play

Soccer is the most popular sport in almost every country in the world. That is unless you live in the USA where football, baseball and basketball are more popular. As a soccer coach the problem is therefore how to get youth players interested in playing soccer rather than the other sports.

Firstly we need to look at the reasons as to why other sports are more popular than soccer in the USA. One of the main reasons is spectator appeal. Local football, baseball and basketball are televised and promoted in every major city in the US. Young athletes watch this and associate with their heroes. Another reason is the money available in the professional game is much more in the American sports than in soccer. As a result, more young sports players aspire to earn their living with a high income in the American sports.

Not that soccer is a poor mans sport. Wages for soccer players around the world are now on the increase. For example 2 of the best soccer players in the world Christiano Ronaldo and Robinho are reported to be on $200, 000 and $320,000 per week respectively. David Beckham who plays for LA Galaxy is also high up there with the top soccer player earners. Although the interest in soccer is growing in the US among young sportsmen, the sport cannot compete as yet with the publicity, advertising and hype of the American sports.

The question is how to persuade young players in the US that soccer is the best sport to enter. Here are a few good reasons:

Soccer is a sport that any player can play and be successful in. As in football where physique and size is a major factor, in basketball where it is very advantageous to be well over 6 feet tall, any player can be successful in soccer no matter what size or physique a player has. Big and strong players can find positions as defenders, midfielders or forwards. Small players can find positions as forwards and wingers and develop skills to be successful in these positions. Slower players can also find positions, especially in midfield. There is a place for everyone who has the desire.

The involvement in the game is much greater in soccer than it is for other sports. In football there are so many stoppages in the game. Some players like the kickers may only have very limited involvement in the game. In soccer, even if your team does not have the ball, everyone has to hustle back to defend. Even the forwards have to defend from the front. Defenders when not defending have to support the midfield and forwards.

Soccer is very fast paced with almost continuous involvement. Basketball is probably the most similar of the American sports to soccer, the biggest difference being the size of the court to the field.

As well as speed, strength and stamina, skill is of the utmost importance in soccer thus producing an athlete with more rounded attributes. At youth level you will often find that youth soccer players often excel in the other American sports.

A good way to get youth athletes more interested in soccer is to get them watching high-class professional games on TV. The English Premier League is probably the best to watch as it is fast paced with a high skill level. Many of the best players in the world play in this league. There are several TV stations that show these games like Fox Sports World.

Also it would be good to get prospective youth soccer players to go to a few of their local college soccer games or semi pro games if there is a team in the area,

And then there is that magical feeling of scoring a goal with the goal celebration to follow. Soccer is certainly on the increase in the USA. The game produces leaders with more all round ability than the US sports. Success in soccer can lead to worldwide acclaim as players like Brad Friedel who plays in the English premier league has shown.

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Goal of the Day: Bent (1998)

That turn and run 👀

A beautiful goal from Marcus Bent in 1998 🙌

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Is a Woman Referee Such a Big Deal?

May 2009, and Michaela Tabb becomes the 1st woman to referee the snooker world championship final. It gets a lot of publicity, but is a woman referee really any big deal?

Well the short answer is that yes, it is a big deal. A lot of people say it’s sexist to focus on the issue, that women officials in sport are no different to their male counterparts. Hmm, I think that’s wrong, and here’s why…

Woman refs in sport *are* different than the men, precisely because there are so few of them. In Michaela Tabb’s case, she freely admits she was fast tracked up the ladder by the world body, but let’s get things in perspective. When she says ‘fast tracked’, it still took her nearly 10 years to get to the top, i.e. the world final. Also, although world snooker helped her get through the door, it was then up to her what she did with it.

Tabb is a realistic woman, who says she got where she is by some good fortune, coupled with ambition and hard work. The fact that she is the first is a reflection of her hard work, and a superb example of goal achievement in action. It takes a lot for a man to referee the world final, so for a woman to do it in such a male dominated field is worthy of note and congratulation. To avoid doing so for fear of being labeled sexist is nonsense in my view.

Whether there should be more women officials is another discussion – my view is that there certainly should. My (well read) copy of ‘Men Are From Mars, Women Are From Venus’ tells me that women can take a more objective view, and stay calm under pressure, perfect for top level sports officiating. Look at the NFL, never a woman umpire, look at the football Premier League, no women refs, and even women assistant refs have come under fire from managers.

So to sum up, yes a woman referee is a big deal, the time will come when it isn’t, but at the moment Michaela Tabb and people like her are breaking down barriers, and more power to them is what I say!

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PL Moment: Sava unveils unique celebration

The Man in the Mask


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Necessary Business Accountancy Services That Profit

Every business requires a well managed set of accounts to ensure transparency and functionality for a continuous operation. Every business owner must be aware of the cash flow status in their company at any time to avoid a business meltdown. This is where professional business accountant services must be considered to meet the objectives.

Chartered accountants

There is a strong need for qualified chartered accountant in the market to assist business enterprises in setting up and managing their accounts. There are many professional chartered accountant service companies in the market that specialize in Bookkeeping and consultancy services for all kinds of businesses in a plethora of industries today.

Not every business enterprise may have its own chartered accountant to manage its financial books professionally although there may be account clerks and qualified Bookkeeper to manage the day-to-day financial operations.

Chartered accountant are professionally qualified on accounting with the best of management skills to ensure a clear and transparent set of account for the business enterprise they service. Cost effective services by chartered accountant include a thorough account process with professional consultancy services to aid the business in its financial requirements and expectations to comply with the financial legislation in the state.

Scope of services

Professional Bookkeeper services may cover a wide scope for any enterprise regardless of its size and industry. A new business startup can enjoy professional accountancy services that range from setting up an appropriate accounts system to submitting the tax reports successfully.

Bespoke accounts solutions that fit the business ventures precisely are possible with professional Bookkeeper having the right skills, knowledge, experience and qualification. Small to large services can be arranged to cater to the different accounting needs of any business.

Skilled and experienced accounting firms can offer their financial setup and management services on a monthly, quarterly or yearly basis to help business firms enjoy a hassle free accounting and reporting system.

Legal requirements

Professional accountancy services are very much needed with the statutory accounts in accordance to the legal requirements of every state for different business enterprises. There would be the detailed variance analysis and reports required with every accounts on a quarterly, half yearly and yearly basis.

Tax returns must be filed for every on a personal, partnership or corporate level with every licensed and registered with the ROC. Professional company secretarial services are part of professional accountancy services for any business to run successfully.

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Work, work, work: The boys are back at Colney

The Gunners are back at it! Check out what they’ve been up to 👇

📽 Arsenal

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